Energy Safe Victoria’s Future Energy Strategy
The Future Trends Strategic Program of work has employed scenario planning as its methodology to deal with uncertain future in the dynamic environment. Developing scenarios are helpful in identifying the challenges and opportunities of the future and developing robust, future-proof strategies to address them. However, this does not make an organisation adaptive in itself. In order to be an adaptive organisation, ESV needs to be able to adjust course when needed. Monitoring how the scenarios develop is a great means to assist in this.
As time progresses, the likelihood or probability of the scenarios will change. Some scenarios will become more likely, others less. Monitoring these changes enables ESV to dynamically identify and prepare for such changes. We do this monitoring with the assistance of expert opinions. What is their (collective) expert feeling about changes towards the future?
A specially designed Future Trends survey asks experts to think about the likelihood of something occurring in 2035. The survey is based on change indicators. The project group has developed these change indicators for each extreme end of the axes of the scenario framework (i.e. each end of the key uncertainties; 4 × 6 in total). The respondents are asked to imagine themselves in 2035. A number of major changes and shifts would have occurred by then. There are 24 statements that describe the key factors that influence the energy safety environment.
Each statement requires an answer based on whether or not respondent believes it is likely to become a reality in 2035. Based on this collective assessment a probability score of the scenarios will emerge. The higher the probability of a scenario, the higher the priority of strategic options that match with that scenario should be in the ESV’s strategy.
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